Professor Ethan Coffel uses spatial analysis, 气候科学和统计作物产量模型，以了解作物和气候之间的关系.
As New York state farmers brace for another growing season, they are likely to feel the heat of global warming, says Syracuse University professor Ethan Coffel.
科菲尔是美国国家科学基金会(NSF)资助的一个为期三年的项目的首席研究员，该项目旨在探索气候与农业变化之间的联系——这个过程被称为作物-气候反馈循环. 他说，虽然主要粮食作物的产量可能会因全球变暖而急剧下降, agricultural adaptations, like moving crops to cooler latitudes, may reduce some of the damage. “降水和温度对作物生长有巨大的影响，”他解释说. “有些地方因为太干、太湿或太热而产量低得多.”
我想制定适应战略，以提高粮食生产的气候适应能力.
Ethan Coffel
Coffel研究作物生长如何影响当地气候，进而影响作物产量. “研究表明，在世界上一些最具农业生产力的地区，作物生长实际上使当地气候变冷,” says Coffel, 在两所大学担任地理学和环境学的助理教授 Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs and the College of Arts and Sciences . “这减轻了高温的影响，提高了作物产量.”
By observing different crop-climate feedback cycles, 他可以评估气候驱动的粮食不安全的未来风险，以及农业地区潜在的经济损失. “我想制定适应战略，以提高粮食生产的气候适应能力,” says Coffel, who earned a Ph.D. in atmospheric science from Columbia University.
Forming Transparent Answers
“研究表明，在世界上一些最具农业生产力的地区，作物生长使当地气候变冷,” says Coffel.
Coffel and his co-principal investigator, Justin Mankin, are focusing on the upper midwestern United States, eastern Europe, northern China, and southern Africa and Asia. “We’re especially interested in the central U.S.—Iowa and Illinois as well as parts of Indiana, Wisconsin, 明尼苏达州和内布拉斯加州——因为它们的最高气温没有显著上升,” says Coffel, 去年秋天在达特茅斯学院获得博士后奖学金后来到锡拉丘兹. “然而，在过去的40年里，世界其他地区变得越来越热.”
他很高兴能与他的前博士后导师曼金重聚. 今年早些时候，他们共同撰写了澳门线上赌场零碳电力的文章 Environmental Research Letters and Carbon Brief . “伊森对创造性和重要的研究问题有着敏锐的嗅觉. 他的技术技能和勤奋的研究实践形成了有用和透明的答案,” says Mankin, assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth.
现在锡拉丘兹的气候与过去纽约南部或新泽西的气候相似.
Ethan Coffel
Their research hinges on large-scale evaporation. “我们知道植物蒸发的水蒸气可以冷却周围的空气，”曼金继续说道. “If crops are productive enough, 它们的蒸腾作用可以减少它们经历的极端炎热的天数.” In fact, he explains, 美国中部大片的玉米和大豆使气候足够凉爽，从而创造了有利的天气条件，并有助于丰收.
“There is a point at which global warming increases enough, even in the Upper Midwest, so that crops can no longer shed heat to keep apace,” Mankin counters. “当这种情况发生时，我们可能会预期农作物产量下降，极端高温会增加.”
For this reason, 两位研究人员都分析了世界范围内的粮食安全和作物生产力不平等, 尤其是在农作物产量不如理论上那么多的地方. “Spatial analysis, 气候科学和统计作物产量模型帮助我们理解作物和气候之间的复杂关系,” says Coffel, who also studied computer science at Northwestern University.
Making Eco-Friendly Choices
科学家们一致认为，工业革命引发了现代全球变暖. Since the 1830s, carbon-rich deposits of coal, oil and natural gas have been burned for heat energy, 将大量的温室气体二氧化碳排放到环境中. 一项研究表明，今天15%的二氧化碳将在环境中存留10年,000 years.
The effects of climate change on agriculture include drought, severe weather, livestock shortages and a growing number of pests, to name a few. These effects are governed by processes called climate feedback loops: a positive feedback loop strengthens an environmental effect; a negative one weakens it.
“Climate change causes the water cycle to speed up, 造成全球蒸发和降水速率不均匀,” says Coffel, citing an example of a positive feedback loop. “水蒸气会放大环境中的温室气体.”
In Coffel’s home state of New York, 自1970年以来，年平均气温上升了2.5度以上. This uptick has prompted drought, flooding, and unseasonably hot and cold temperatures, 可能会威胁到美国最庞大的农业中心之一. “锡拉丘兹的气候与过去在纽约南部或新泽西州的气候相似,” says Coffel, 谁的项目提供学生研究和当地公众宣传的机会. “The world’s climate zones are moving toward the poles.”
To stem the tide of global warming, he encourages people to make small, 简单的生活方式改变——从转向植物性饮食，把汽车换成自行车，到少坐飞机. Coffel is particularly keen on “pieces of infrastructure,比如电动汽车和节能的家庭供暖系统, that are eco-friendly. “Otherwise, 你最喜欢的耗油量大的汽车将在未来几十年里危害环境,” he warns. “我们今天做出的选择将影响我们的孩子和孩子的孩子.”
